Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 May 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 14 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8993 (S23W58) WAS THE MOST ACTIVE GROUP TODAY, PRODUCING AN M1/SF AT 0805Z, AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL, UPPER-LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. THE REGION SHOWED SOME GROWTH IN THE TRAILING PART OF THE REGION. REGION 8996 (S21E44) IS THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK WITH 1140 MILLIONTHS AREA, AND WAS ABLE TO MUSTER A COUPLE UPPER-LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8998 (S13E54) SHOWED SOME GROWTH TODAY, AND ALSO PRODUCED A C-CLASS EVENT. NEW REGION 9002 (N18E76) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A LARGE, H-TYPE SUNSPOT: THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE REGION MAY BECOME APPARENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LONG DURATION C-CLASS EVENT OCCURRED FROM 13/2301 TO 14/0020Z. THIS EVENT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND A CORONAL MASS EJECTION WHICH BECAME VISIBLE IN THE LASCO C2 FIELD OF VIEW AT 0026Z. THE MASS EJECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTHWARD DIRECTED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH REGIONS 8993 AND 8996 BEING THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR M-CLASS FLARES, ALTHOUGH 8989 (N16W54) AND 8998 COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DOMINATED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT A PERIOD OF ENHANCED ACTIVITY (ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM) WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN 0000-0300Z. THERE WAS NO CLEAR-CUT SOLAR WIND SIGNATURE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SUBSTORM, OTHER THAN TWO HOURS OF MODERATELY ENHANCED NEGATIVE BZ FROM 0000-0200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 15 MAY to 17 MAY
Class M65%65%65%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 MAY 233
  Predicted   15 MAY-17 MAY  235/235/240
  90 Day Mean        14 MAY 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAY  015/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAY  015/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAY-17 MAY  008/010-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 MAY to 17 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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