Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 May 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. TWO M1 X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED, ONE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED AT 13/0144UT, THE OTHER AN SF FLARE FROM 8998 (S13E66) AT 12/2329UT. A WEAK TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (581 KM/S) PRECEDED THE OPTICAL FLARE. A LARGE CME WAS SEEN ERUPTING FROM THE NE LIMB IN LASCO C2 AT 12/2325UT. EIT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS CME ORIGINATED BEHIND THE LIMB AND IS NOT EARTH DIRECTED. REGION 8996 (S22E57) MORE THAN DOUBLED IN SIZE TO AN AREA OF 1210 MILLIONTHS. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, 8999 (S13E66) AND 9000 (N10E14).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. A NUMBER OF REGIONS ON THE DISK ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M FLARES AND X-RAY IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER STRONG REGION IS ROTATING OVER THE NE LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM A SMALL CORONAL HOLE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
ON THE FIRST DAY THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE FOR MINOR STORMING. THE CURRENT HIGH SPEED STREAM SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY, BUT A SHOCK ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLARE OF 10 MAY IS EXPECTED. BY THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS THE FIELD SHOULD RECOVER TO PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 14 MAY to 16 MAY
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 MAY 217
  Predicted   14 MAY-16 MAY  225/225/230
  90 Day Mean        13 MAY 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 MAY  019/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAY  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAY-16 MAY  018/018-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 MAY to 16 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%15%15%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%25%30%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%

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