Viewing archive of Friday, 5 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. A LONG DURATION M1 X-RAY
EVENT OCCURRED AT 05/1621Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. IMAGERY
FROM THE SOHO/LASCO SPACECRAFT INDICATED A CORONAL MASS EJECTION
(CME) OCCURRED BEHIND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS
EVENT. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO HAVE ERUPTED FROM REGION 8970,
NOW AT APPROXIMATELY S14W120. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK CONTINUUM WAS
ALSO REPORTED. OTHERWISE, ONLY A COUPLE MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE
OBSERVED. NO SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OR DECAY WAS NOTED IN THE REGIONS
ON THE DISK. NEW REGIONS 8984 (S16E13), 8985 (N13E51), AND 8986
(S19E45) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH TWO ISOLATED
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OBSERVED AT 05/0600-0900Z AND
05/1500-1800Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS ENHANCED DURING PART OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 06 MAY to 08 MAY
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 MAY 130 Predicted 06 MAY-08 MAY 130/135/145 90 Day Mean 05 MAY 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 MAY 005/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 MAY 012/014 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 MAY-08 MAY 015/014-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 MAY to 08 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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