Viewing archive of Monday, 24 April 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 24 APR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED, PRIMARILY FROM REGIONS 8971 (N18E28) AND 8972 (N34W34). REGION 8971 IS A LARGE, COMPLEX GROUP, AND 8972 HAS A DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AS WELL. REGION 8970 (S15E30), THE LARGEST ON THE DISK AT OVER 1000 MILLIONTHS, HAS BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8970, 8971, AND 8972 ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. A TRANSIENT WAS SEEN TO PASS THE ACE SPACECRAFT AROUND 0400Z, BRINGING WITH IT ENHANCED SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRED SHORTLY THEREAFTER, THEN SUBSIDING TO MORE NORMAL (BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED) LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON 25 APRIL, AND STRICTLY UNSETTLED THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 25 APR to 27 APR
Class M50%50%50%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 APR 206
  Predicted   25 APR-27 APR  210/210/215
  90 Day Mean        24 APR 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 APR  004/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 APR  015/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 APR-27 APR  015/018-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 APR to 27 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%30%30%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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