Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 April 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 23 APR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8971 (N18E41) PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE, A C7/1N AT 22/2354UT. THIS REGION IS GROWING IN SUNSPOT AREA AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 8970 (S15E43) IS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK AND HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL SUBFLARES. REGIONS 8966 (S13W06), 8967 (N22E09), AND 8972 (N34W21) ALSO GENERATED SMALL FLARES. NEW REGIONS 8974 (S21W36) AND 8975 (S25E50) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8970, 8971, AND 8972 ARE THE MOST PROBABLE SOURCES OF ACTIVITY. A MAJOR FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8970 OR 8971. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 24 APR to 26 APR
Class M50%50%50%
Class X02%02%02%
Proton02%02%02%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 APR 206
  Predicted   24 APR-26 APR  215/220/220
  90 Day Mean        23 APR 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 APR  004/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 APR  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 APR-26 APR  010/012-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 APR to 26 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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