Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 April 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 APR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED FROM A VARIETY OF ACTIVE REGIONS, INCLUDING 8955 (S21W71), 8963 (N17W44), 8967 (N22E23), 8970 (S15E56), 8971 (N17E54), AND 8972 (N33W10). REGION 8963, A SMALL SLOWLY DECAYING SUNSPOT GROUP, WAS THE MOST ACTIVE. REGION 8970 IS THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK BUT APPEARS MAGNETICALLY SIMPLE. NEW REGION 8973 (N20W12) EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. REGIONS 8963, 8970, 8971, AND 8972 ARE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF ENERGETIC FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 23 APR to 25 APR
Class M50%50%50%
Class X02%02%02%
Proton02%02%02%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 APR 202
  Predicted   23 APR-25 APR  210/215/220
  90 Day Mean        22 APR 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 APR  007/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 APR  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 APR-25 APR  005/005-005/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 APR to 25 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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