Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 April 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 20 APR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NEW REGION 8969 (N13E62) PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE DAY, A C8/SF AT 20/1033UT. REGION 8963 (N16W18) ALSO PRODUCED C-CLASS ACTIVITY, THE LARGEST BEING A C4/SF AT 20/1937UT. NEW REGION 8970 (S14E77) IS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST LIMB. SO FAR A LARGE H-TYPE SPOT IS VISIBLE AND TRAILER SPOTS ARE EXPECTED TO APPEAR BY TOMORROW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN REGION 8963. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
III. Event Probabilities 21 APR to 23 APR
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 APR 181
  Predicted    21 APR-23 APR  185/190/200
  90 Day Mean        20 APR 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 APR  009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 APR  018/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 APR-23 APR  015/012-010/005-010/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 APR to 23 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 15%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%02%02%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 15%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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