Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 April 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 15 APR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8955 (S22E20) SHOWED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED SEVERAL FLARES, TWO OF WHICH REACHED M-CLASS. THE FIRST WAS AN M4/SF AT 15/1018Z ASSOCIATED WITH A 570 SFU TENFLARE AND A PARTIAL-HALO CME. THE SECOND WAS AN M2/1N AT 15/1448Z. ANOTHER FLARE OF NOTE FROM REGION 8955 WAS A C7/1N AT 15/1905Z ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE. MINOR GROWTH WAS REPORTED IN REGION 8951 (N12W31). REGION 8948 (S16W76) PRODUCED ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES AS IT CONTINUED TO DECAY. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8955 MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL M-CLASS FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHROUNOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING 16 APRIL IN RESPONSE TO A PARTIAL-HALO CME OBSERVED LATE ON 13 APRIL. ACTIVE LEVELS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON 18 APRIL DUE TO THE PARTIAL-HALO CME OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NORMAL TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 16 APR to 18 APR
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 APR 164
  Predicted   16 APR-18 APR  165/165/165
  90 Day Mean        15 APR 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 APR  002/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 APR  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 APR-18 APR  018/020-010/012-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 APR to 18 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%30%
Minor storm20%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%30%40%
Minor storm25%15%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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