Viewing archive of Monday, 10 April 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 10 APR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 8948 (S15W19)
PRODUCED AN M3/2B FLARE AT 2342Z ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II SWEEP.
THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE IN THE LASCO CORONAGRAPH DATA FOR A CME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRODUCER OF SOLAR ACTIVITY ON THE DISK AND CONTINUES TO SHOW A DELTA
SPOT. THE SIZE AND NUMBER OF SPOTS FOR 8948 REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY
DURING THE PERIOD. SEVERAL NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED TODAY: 8954
(N32E65), 8955 (S22E75), 8956 (N11E53), AND 8957 (S09W24). ALL OF
THESE REGIONS WERE SIMPLE AND STABLE. REGION 8957 EMERGED JUST
NORTHWEST OF 8948 WITH ITS OWN IDENTITY AS A SIMPLE BIPOLAR GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR-TO-GOOD CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL, ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8948.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOLAR WIND SPEEDS (450-550 KM/S) WERE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK NEGATIVE INTERPLANETARY BZ (-3
TO -5 NT), AND PRODUCED AN EXTENDED INTERVAL OF ACTIVE LEVELS FROM
09/2100-10/1200Z. CONDITIONS DECREASED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FROM 1200Z THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS AT 1355Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME HIGH-LATITUDE ACTIVE PERIODS ON THE SECOND
DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 11 APR to 13 APR
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 APR 178 Predicted 11 APR-13 APR 175/175/180 90 Day Mean 10 APR 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 APR 012/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 APR 018/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 APR-13 APR 010/010-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 APR to 13 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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