Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 April 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 06 APR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8948 (S12E42) PRODUCED AN M1/2B FLARE AT 06/0229UT. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A MINOR RADIO BURST AND A TYPE II SWEEP (ESTIMATE SHOCK VELOCITY OF 700KM/S). REGION 8948 RETAINS SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT IT AND MOST OF THE OTHER 11 SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY DECLINING. REGION 8933 (N19W96) HAS QUIETLY ROTATED OFF THE DISK. THE SMALL FILAMENT NEAR S15 E10 DISAPPEARED EARLY TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. RETURNING REGION 8910 (N13 L=069), A MAJOR FLARE PRODUCER LAST ROTATION, IS DUE BACK ON THE EAST LIMB LATE TOMORROW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A SHOCK WAS OBSERVED BY THE ACE SPACECRAFT AROUND 06/1600UT. THE ASSOCIATED SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED AT 1640UT (37NT AS OBSERVED AT SAN JUAN) AND THE FIELD HAS BEEN AT MAJOR STORM LEVELS SINCE THAT TIME. THERE WERE MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS OBSERVED ON BOTH GOES 8 AND GOES 10 STARTING AROUND 1800UT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOST LIKELY THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE HALO CME OBSERVED FOLLOWING THE C9/2F FLARE AT 04/1541UT. THE SATELLITE PROTON EVENT WHICH BEGAN AT 04/2055UT, ENDED TODAY AT 0155UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT STORM LEVELS FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW. THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 07 APR to 09 APR
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 APR 178
  Predicted   07 APR-09 APR  175/180/180
  90 Day Mean        06 APR 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 APR  014/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 APR  030/033
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 APR-09 APR  025/030-010/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 APR to 09 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%15%
Minor storm35%10%10%
Major-severe storm11%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%20%
Minor storm40%20%10%
Major-severe storm06%01%01%

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