Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 April 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 01 APR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DROPPED TO A LOW LEVEL. SEVERAL MID TO
HIGH C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED. REGION 8924 (N10W54) PRODUCED A C8/SF
AT 01/0349Z AND A C8/1N AT 01/0744Z. REGION 8939 (N23E44) GENERATED
A C6/SF AT 01/1151Z AND A C8/SF AT 01/1759Z. OUTSIDE OF SLIGHT
GROWTH IN REGION 8924, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOTED IN THESE OR
OTHER REGIONS DURING THE PERIOD. A SMALL FILAMENT NEAR N45E20 FADED
DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE DURING
THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS
OCCURRED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 02 APR to 04 APR
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 APR 223 Predicted 02 APR-04 APR 223/223/220 90 Day Mean 01 APR 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 MAR 018/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 APR 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 APR-04 APR 008/010-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 APR to 04 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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