Viewing archive of Monday, 27 March 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 27 MAR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8926 (S09W72) PRODUCED AN M1/1N X-RAY EVENT AT 27/0518Z. OTHER NUMEROUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO OBSERVED FROM REGION 8926. DECAY WAS NOTED IN REGION 8926; HOWEVER, SLIGHT GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGIONS 8924 (N10E12) AND 8925 (S18E20). NEW REGIONS 8933 (N15E33), AND 8934 (N21E53) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE MINOR M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. FURTHER ANALYSIS INDICATES NO STRONG EARTH-DIRECTED CME IN PROGRESS FROM THE 25 MARCH EVENT. ANY SIGNIFICANT GEOEFFECTIVE CONDITIONS FROM THE EVENT ON 25 MARCH ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.
III. Event Probabilities 28 MAR to 30 MAR
Class M50%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 MAR 205
  Predicted   28 MAR-30 MAR  205/200/195
  90 Day Mean        27 MAR 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 MAR  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 MAR  008/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 MAR-30 MAR  010/015-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 MAR to 30 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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