Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 March 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 26 MAR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE M-CLASS EVENT; AN M2/SF FROM REGION 8926 (S12W55) AT 26/1734UT. THIS EVENT ALSO PRODUCED A 3 DEGREE LONG, DISAPPEARING SOLAR FILAMENT (DSF) NEAR THE REGION CENTER AT S11W55. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 25/2205UT. REGION 8921 (S14W02) PRODUCED A C7/1F AT 25/2243UT. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS INCLUDED: 8916 (N08W30), 8920 (N23W07), 8924 (N10E39), AND 8925 (S18E38), ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED ISOLATED OPTICAL SUBFLARES. REGIONS 8924 AND 8925 SHOWED AN INCREASE IN SIZE DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO DEVELOPED INTO MORE COMPLEX BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATIONS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD AT 26/15-1800UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND QUIET TO ACTIVE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLE INDICATIONS, THAT THE C7/1F EVENT DESCRIBED ABOVE, COULD HAVE ALSO PRODUCED AN EARTH-DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME). THESE INDICATORS AND THE REGION'S CENTRAL POSITION AT THE TIME OF THE EVENT COMBINE TO PRODUCE POSSIBLE GEOEFFECTIVE CONDITIONS. IMAGES FROM THE SOHO/LASCO SPACECRAFT WERE NOT AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF THE EVENT, MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO VERIFY THE PRESENCE OF AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME.
III. Event Probabilities 27 MAR to 29 MAR
Class M 60%60%60%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 MAR 211
  Predicted    27 MAR-29 MAR  205/200/200
  90 Day Mean        26 MAR 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 MAR  005/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 MAR  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 MAR-29 MAR  008/008-020/025-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 MAR to 29 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%60%60%
Minor storm 05%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%70%70%
Minor storm 10%25%20%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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