Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 March 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 25 MAR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8926 (S10W45) WAS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS, THE LARGEST BEING A C8/SF AT 25/0947UT. REGION 8926 DIMINISHED IN SIZE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY BUT ALSO DEVELOPED INTO A MORE COMPLEX BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. REGIONS 8924 (N10E41), 8925 (S18E50), AND 8928 (N19E45) WERE ALSO ACTIVE DURING THE PERIOD PRODUCING ISOLATED OPTICAL SUBFLARES. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE AND SHOWED VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. AN 20 DEGREE LONG, DISAPPEARING SOLAR FILAMENT (DSF) WAS DETECTED NEAR S54E07.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED BEGAN TO DECREASE DURING THE PERIOD, INDICATING THAT THE EARTH IS MOVING OUT OF THE HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 26 MAR to 28 MAR
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 MAR 205
  Predicted    26 MAR-28 MAR  205/205/200
  90 Day Mean        25 MAR 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 MAR  009/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 MAR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 MAR-28 MAR  010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 MAR to 28 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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