Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 March 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 23 MAR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO TWO M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE AT 23/0030UT AND THE SECOND WAS AN M2/SF FROM REGION 8910 AT 23/1214UT. REGION 8910 IS THE LARGEST AND MOST ACTIVE REGION AND CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C AND POSSIBLE M-CLASS EVENTS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGIONS 8913 (S06W50), 8915 (N23W14), AND 8917 (N19W47) ALL PRODUCED C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGIONS 8916 (N13E01), 8918 (N13W66), AND 8921 (S15E37) WERE ALSO ACTIVE, PRODUCING OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD. FOUR NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED; 8924 (N13E70), 8925 (S17E76), 8926 (S10W18), AND 8927 (N18E01).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED REMAINED HIGH, ALTHOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE DURING THE PERIOD, FROM 600 TO 500 KM/S. PRESUMABLY RELATED TO A WELL POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE, WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER LATITUDES DURING THE SECOND DAY OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 24 MAR to 26 MAR
Class M 60%60%60%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 MAR 224
  Predicted    24 MAR-26 MAR  230/240/245
  90 Day Mean        23 MAR 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 MAR  008/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAR  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAR-26 MAR  015/025-020/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 MAR to 26 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%60%50%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%70%60%
Minor storm 20%25%20%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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