Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 March 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 22 MAR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8910 (N13W61) PRODUCED AN X1/2N EVENT AT 1848Z. THE ACTIVITY INCLUDED TYPES II AND IV SWEEP, AND A BURST OF 500 SFU AT 10 CM. THE REGION HAD GENERATED AN M1/1N FLARE EARLIER, AT 0118Z. LIMB PROXIMITY IS BEGINNING TO HAMPER ANALYSIS OF 8910, BUT DATA SUGGEST IT STILL TO BE LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX. REGIONS 8917 (N20W35) AND 8918 (N32W53), BOTH NEAR REGION 8910, GENERATED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8923 (S27E43) WAS ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED INCREASED FROM 400 TO 600 KM/S DURING THE DAY, PRESUMABLY RELATED TO A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH-SPEED STREAM EFFECTS SHOULD LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 23 MAR to 25 MAR
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 MAR 234
  Predicted   23 MAR-25 MAR  240/240/245
  90 Day Mean        22 MAR 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAR  002/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAR  010/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAR-25 MAR  015/015-015/015-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 MAR to 25 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%50%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%60%60%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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