Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 March 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 22 MAR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8910 (N13W61) PRODUCED
AN X1/2N EVENT AT 1848Z. THE ACTIVITY INCLUDED TYPES II AND IV
SWEEP, AND A BURST OF 500 SFU AT 10 CM. THE REGION HAD GENERATED AN
M1/1N FLARE EARLIER, AT 0118Z. LIMB PROXIMITY IS BEGINNING TO HAMPER
ANALYSIS OF 8910, BUT DATA SUGGEST IT STILL TO BE LARGE AND
MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX. REGIONS 8917 (N20W35) AND 8918 (N32W53), BOTH
NEAR REGION 8910, GENERATED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8923
(S27E43) WAS ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED
INCREASED FROM 400 TO 600 KM/S DURING THE DAY, PRESUMABLY RELATED TO
A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH-SPEED
STREAM EFFECTS SHOULD LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 23 MAR to 25 MAR
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 MAR 234 Predicted 23 MAR-25 MAR 240/240/245 90 Day Mean 22 MAR 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAR 002/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAR 010/011 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAR-25 MAR 015/015-015/015-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 MAR to 25 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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