Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 March 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 15 MAR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S16W20)
PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, AN M1/1N AT 15/1840UT.
THIS ACTIVE REGION REMAINS LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX ALTHOUGH
SOME DECAY IS EVIDENT SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8910 (N11E31)
CONTINUES TO GROW AND HAS PRODUCED A FEW SMALL FLARES. THE LARGEST
WAS A C3/SF AT 14/2105UT. OTHER SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE RELATIVELY
QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. ADDITIONAL M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE IN REGION
8906. A MAJOR FLARE IN THIS REGION IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 16 MAR to 18 MAR
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 MAR 179 Predicted 16 MAR-18 MAR 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 15 MAR 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAR 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAR 003/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAR-18 MAR 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 MAR to 18 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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