Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 March 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 11 MAR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S16E31)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 11/0927Z. TIGHT MAGNETIC GRADIENTS AND A
POSSIBLE DELTA CONFIGURATION EXIST IN THIS REGION WHICH ALSO
PRODUCED A C4/SF AT 10/2318Z AND A C6 FLARE AT 11/0415Z. NEW REGIONS
8909 (S18W20) AND 8910 (S29E76) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE LIKELY FROM REGION 8906.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 12 MAR to 14 MAR
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 MAR 203 Predicted 12 MAR-14 MAR 200/195/195 90 Day Mean 11 MAR 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAR 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAR 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAR-14 MAR 010/012-007/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 MAR to 14 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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