Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 February 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 FEB 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8889 (N20E35)
PRODUCED A LONG DURATION M1/2F FLARE FROM 26/2333-27/0103Z. THIS
EVENT WAS PRECEDED BY A NEARBY FILAMENT ERUPTION AND ERUPTIVE
PROMINENCE AT NE44 TO 0.29 RADIUS ABOVE THE LIMB. MINOR RADIO BURSTS
ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. THE SOHO CORONAGRAPH RECORDED A VERY LARGE
AND DENSE CORONAL MASS EJECTION FOLLOWING THE ERUPTION AND FLARE. IT
WAS SEEN TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC. REGION 8882
(S16W04) PRODUCED FREQUENT C-CLASS SUBFLARES. SOME GROWTH WAS NOTED
HERE BUT MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY MAY BE DECREASING. REGION 8891 (S17E49)
ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES BUT WAS GENERALLY STABLE IN OTHER
PARAMETERS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8882 AND 8891.
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT EITHER OF THESE REGIONS COULD
PRODUCE A MAJOR FLARE. SHOULD THE FILAMENT NEAR REGION 8889 REFORM,
ANOTHER ERUPTION COULD BE POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
REMAINED ELEVATED AT APPROXIMATELY 550-600 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS DURING THE
PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DECREASES TO
BACKGROUND LEVEL. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 28 FEB to 01 MAR
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 FEB 227 Predicted 28 FEB-01 MAR 229/231/233 90 Day Mean 27 FEB 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 FEB 010/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 FEB 009/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 FEB-01 MAR 008/010-008/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 FEB to 01 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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