Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 February 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 FEB 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 24/0111Z. THERE ARE SOME TENTATIVE INDICATIONS
THAT THIS EVENT ORIGINATED FROM NEW REGION 8889 NEAR N19E67. THIS
REGION IS A MODERATE SIZE D CLASS GROUP BUT FORESHORTENING MAY BE
MASKING ITS TRUE SIZE. A TOTAL OF THREE OTHER REGIONS IN THE EASTERN
HEMISPHERE BECAME VISIBLE BUT, AT THIS TIME, NONE APPEARED LARGE OR
COMPLEX. THERE MAY BE ONE OR MORE REGIONS STILL BEHIND THE EAST
LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE
FROM NEAR EAST LIMB REGIONS IS A POSSIBILITY. ONCE THESE LONGITUDES
BECOME VISIBLE, A BETTER ASSESSMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT QUIET LEVELS AND WAS AT
ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AFTER 24/0300Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
INCREASED TO SLIGHTLY OVER 800 KM/S AND DENSITY DECLINED TO LOW
LEVELS INDICATING THE EARTH IS IMMERSED IN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
CORONAL HOLE STREAM. THE SOURCE HOLE ON THE SUN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
ELONGATED THAN LAST SOLAR ROTATION.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 25-26 FEB. OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF MINOR STORMING ARE LIKELY DURING THAT PERIOD. THIS CORONAL HOLE
RELATED DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO EBB ON 27 FEB WHEN QUIET TO
SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED TO HIGH LEVELS ON 25
FEB.
III. Event Probabilities 25 FEB to 27 FEB
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 FEB 192 Predicted 25 FEB-27 FEB 195/197/200 90 Day Mean 24 FEB 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 FEB 008/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 FEB 024/023 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 FEB-27 FEB 025/020-018/018-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 FEB to 27 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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