Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 February 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

: : : : : : : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : : : : : : SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THREE M1 X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED FROM REGION 8869 (S18W87). THEY WERE: AN M1/2B AT 21/2319Z, AN M1/SF AT 22/0856Z, AND AN M1/SF AT 22/1133Z. SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. REGION 8882 (S16E57) DISPLAYED MODERATE GROWTH IN BOTH AREA AND SPOT NUMBER DURING THE PERIOD. THE PENTICTON 10.7 CENTIMETER FLUX IS ESTIMATED TODAY DUE TO ENHANCED VALUES. NEW REGION 8883 (N13E60) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE POSSIBLITY OF M-CLASS LEVEL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS REGION 8869 ROTATES OVER THE WEST LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE IN THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD TO DUE THE EFFECTS OF A RETURNING HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
III. Event Probabilities 23 FEB to 25 FEB
Class M 30%25%25%
Class X 05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 FEB 164
  Predicted    23 FEB-25 FEB  145/135/130
  90 Day Mean        22 FEB 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 FEB  015/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 FEB  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 FEB-25 FEB  010/012-015/015-015/023
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 FEB to 25 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm 05%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm 10%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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