Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 February 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
: : : : : : : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : : : : : : SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 FEB 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THREE M1 X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED FROM REGION 8869 (S18W87). THEY WERE: AN M1/2B AT
21/2319Z, AN M1/SF AT 22/0856Z, AND AN M1/SF AT 22/1133Z. SEVERAL
MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION.
REGION 8882 (S16E57) DISPLAYED MODERATE GROWTH IN BOTH AREA AND SPOT
NUMBER DURING THE PERIOD. THE PENTICTON 10.7 CENTIMETER FLUX IS
ESTIMATED TODAY DUE TO ENHANCED VALUES. NEW REGION 8883 (N13E60)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE POSSIBLITY OF M-CLASS LEVEL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE AS REGION 8869 ROTATES OVER THE WEST LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD, BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE IN THE LAST HALF OF THE
PERIOD TO DUE THE EFFECTS OF A RETURNING HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE
STREAM.
III. Event Probabilities 23 FEB to 25 FEB
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 FEB 164 Predicted 23 FEB-25 FEB 145/135/130 90 Day Mean 22 FEB 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 FEB 015/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 FEB 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 FEB-25 FEB 010/012-015/015-015/023
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 FEB to 25 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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