Viewing archive of Monday, 21 February 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. TWO MINOR M-CLASS EVENTS, BOTH OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED, WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS AN M2 AT 20/2207, AND THE SECOND WAS AN M1 AT 21/0836. SEVERAL OTHER MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO REPORTED. NEW REGION 8881 (N19E53), AND 8882 (S16E69) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM. ONE ISOLATED PERIOD OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED FROM 21/1500-1800Z DUE TO A SHORTLIVED DISTURBANCE IN THE MAGNETIC FIELD, AND MAY BE RELATED TO A TYPE II SWEEP THAT OCCURRED BACK ON 18 FEBRUARY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON THE FIRST AND THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 22 FEB to 24 FEB
Class M 30%30%25%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 FEB 152
  Predicted    22 FEB-24 FEB  145/135/130
  90 Day Mean        21 FEB 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 FEB  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 FEB  016/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 FEB-24 FEB  015/025-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 FEB to 24 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm 15%05%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm 25%10%10%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%

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