Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 February 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NUMEROUS C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS WERE OBSERVED WITH THE LARGEST BEING A C8/1N FROM REGION 8869 (S20W61). REGIONS 8875 (S22W13) AND 8869 BOTH DISPLAYED SOME GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8869 MAINTAINED A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION WITH APPROXIMATELY 41 SUNSPOTS. NEW REGION 8880 (S08W69) WAS NUMBERED TODAY AND IS CURRENTLY A BETA GROUP WITH 3 SPOTS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8869. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REACH UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO A FULL-HALO CME PRODUCED BY AN EVENT ON 17 FEBRUARY. THE SECOND AND THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 21 FEB to 23 FEB
Class M 35%35%35%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 FEB 153
  Predicted    21 FEB-23 FEB  150/145/135
  90 Day Mean        20 FEB 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 FEB  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 FEB  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 FEB-23 FEB  030/050-015/030-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 FEB to 23 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%35%25%
Minor storm 30%15%05%
Major-severe storm 15%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%40%30%
Minor storm 60%25%15%
Major-severe storm 15%10%05%

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