Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 February 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8867 (S16W47) HAD THE PERIOD'S ONLY C-CLASS EVENT, A C1/SF AT 1855Z. THE DISK HAS TWELVE SPOTTED REGIONS, INCLUDING TWO NEW GROUPS: REGIONS 8875 (S23E55) AND 8876 (S13E62). ALL ARE MAGNETICALLY SIMPLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE LOW LEVEL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID LATITUDES, AND QUIET TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES. SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS HAVE RETURNED TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 16 FEB to 18 FEB
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 FEB 156
  Predicted   16 FEB-18 FEB  155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        15 FEB 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 FEB  020/029
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 FEB  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 FEB-18 FEB  010/008-005/008-010/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 FEB to 18 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%30%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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