Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 February 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8858 (N25W38) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 0410Z. THE EVENT INCLUDED TYPE II AND IV SWEEP, AS WELL AS MODERATE (340 SFU AT 245 MHZ) DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM. THAT EVENT WAS THE HIGHLIGHT OF AN OTHERWISE QUIET DAY. THE ELEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS COULD BE DESCRIBED AS GENERALLY BEING IN A STATE OF DECAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. BOULDER MEASURED A SUDDEN COMMENCEMENT OF 19 NT AT 11/2353Z. MINOR TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS FOLLOWED OVER THE NEXT 15 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS THOUGHT TO BE THE RESULT OF THE PASSAGE OF A CME THAT LEFT THE SUN ON 09 FEBRUARY. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED, STARTING AROUND 0600Z. THE PEAK VALUE WAS 2 PFU AT 1120Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR STORM LEVELS THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS EFFECTS FROM TODAY'S STORM LINGER. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED IS STILL NEAR 550 KM/S. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY 14 FEBRUARY, FINALLY YIELDING TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME SUBSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 13 FEB to 15 FEB
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 FEB 163
  Predicted   13 FEB-15 FEB  160/155/150
  90 Day Mean        12 FEB 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 FEB  010/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 FEB  045/048
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 FEB-15 FEB  030/035-020/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 FEB to 15 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%40%30%
Minor storm50%40%10%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%30%40%
Minor storm60%50%20%
Major-severe storm25%15%05%

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