Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 February 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 FEB 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8858 (N25W38)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 0410Z. THE EVENT INCLUDED TYPE II AND IV
SWEEP, AS WELL AS MODERATE (340 SFU AT 245 MHZ) DISCRETE RADIO
BURSTS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM. THAT EVENT WAS THE HIGHLIGHT OF AN
OTHERWISE QUIET DAY. THE ELEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS COULD BE DESCRIBED
AS GENERALLY BEING IN A STATE OF DECAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS.
BOULDER MEASURED A SUDDEN COMMENCEMENT OF 19 NT AT 11/2353Z. MINOR
TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS FOLLOWED OVER THE NEXT 15 HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS THOUGHT TO BE THE RESULT OF THE PASSAGE OF A CME THAT
LEFT THE SUN ON 09 FEBRUARY. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED, STARTING AROUND 0600Z.
THE PEAK VALUE WAS 2 PFU AT 1120Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR STORM LEVELS THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS EFFECTS
FROM TODAY'S STORM LINGER. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED IS STILL NEAR 550
KM/S. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY 14 FEBRUARY, FINALLY YIELDING TO
UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME SUBSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 13 FEB to 15 FEB
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 FEB 163 Predicted 13 FEB-15 FEB 160/155/150 90 Day Mean 12 FEB 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 FEB 010/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 FEB 045/048 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 FEB-15 FEB 030/035-020/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 FEB to 15 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 60% | 50% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
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