Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 February 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. ONE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS X-RAY FLARE WAS DETECTED. REGION 8851 (N26E03) CONTINUED TO SHOW MINOR GROWTH, BUT REMAINED SMALL AND SIMPLY-STRUCTURED. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE SMALL, SIMPLE, AND STABLE INCLUDING NEWLY NUMBERED REGIONS 8855 (N15E57) AND 8856 (S15E82).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER, AN INCREASING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON 05 FEBRUARY WITH THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGION 8824 (S13, L = 175).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 03 FEB to 05 FEB
Class M10%10%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 FEB 144
  Predicted   03 FEB-05 FEB  150/155/170
  90 Day Mean        02 FEB 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 FEB  005/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 FEB  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 FEB-05 FEB  005/010-005/005-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 FEB to 05 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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