Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 February 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 FEB 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. A SINGLE C-CLASS X-RAY
FLARE WAS DETECTED DURING THE PERIOD. MINOR GROWTH WAS NOTED IN
REGIONS 8851 (N27E16) AND 8852 (N10E00). ALL THE VISIBLE REGIONS
WERE SMALL AND SIMPLY-STRUCTURED INCLUDING NEW REGIONS 8853 (S10E64)
AND 8854 (S33E81).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS WITH ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS
8851 AND 8852.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHONOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO
NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE FINAL TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 02 FEB to 04 FEB
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 FEB 138 Predicted 02 FEB-04 FEB 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 01 FEB 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 JAN 007/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 FEB 007/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 FEB-04 FEB 007/010-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 FEB to 04 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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