Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 January 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 JAN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C6/SF AT 25/0623Z FROM REGION 8842 (S17W37). A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS 8845 (S14E24).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST WITH UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOR THE THIRD DAY. THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DISTURBED AS A RESULT OF A WELL POSITIONED EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 26 JAN to 28 JAN
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 JAN 137
  Predicted    26 JAN-28 JAN  135/130/130
  90 Day Mean        25 JAN 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JAN  012/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JAN  008/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JAN-28 JAN  005/010-015/018-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 JAN to 28 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%40%50%
Minor storm 05%15%20%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%50%60%
Minor storm 10%20%25%
Major-severe storm 01%05%10%

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