Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 January 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 JAN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE, AN M1 FLARE WAS OBSERVED AT 22/1802UT FROM REGION 8831 (S17W53). THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A MINOR RADIO BURST AND WAS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE LARGE FILAMENT NEAR S43W32. THERE ARE NINE SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, BUT ALL APPEAR STABLE OR DECAYING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN ACTIVE. A SHOCK WAS SEEN BY THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT 22/0023UT, HOWEVER, THERE WAS NO NOTICEABLE IMPULSE ON GROUND-BASED MAGNETOMETERS FOLLOWING THE SHOCK AT ACE. THE BZ COMPONENT OF THE INTERPLANETARY FIELD HAS BEEN NEGATIVE (SOUTH) FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, REACHING A MINIMUM OF -18NT AROUND 22/1800UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD, RETURNING TO QUIET LEVELS AFTER 23 JAN.
III. Event Probabilities 23 JAN to 25 JAN
Class M40%30%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 JAN 151
  Predicted   23 JAN-25 JAN  150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        22 JAN 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JAN  000/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JAN  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JAN-25 JAN  010/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 JAN to 25 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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