Viewing archive of Friday, 21 January 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 JAN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 21/0648UT. EIT IMAGERY FROM THE SOHO
SPACECRAFT SUGGESTS REGION 8833 (N18W24) AS THE SOURCE OF THIS
EVENT. GROWTH CONTINUES IN REGION 8837 (S07W69), HOWEVER, ITS FLARE
PRODUCTION HAS BEEN LOW. A LARGE EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE, WHICH
HAS BEEN VISIBLE DURING EACH SOLAR ROTATION FOR THE PAST SIX MONTHS,
IS AGAIN ROTATING OVER THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE M-FLARE EVENTS OBSERVED ON 18 JANUARY.
III. Event Probabilities 22 JAN to 24 JAN
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 JAN 159 Predicted 22 JAN-24 JAN 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 21 JAN 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JAN 013/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JAN 003/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JAN-24 JAN 025/035-015/012-008/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 JAN to 24 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 06% | 01% | 01% |
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