Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 January 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 JAN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OF THE SEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS
ON THE DISK, REGION 8837 (S08W55) HAS SHOWN THE MOST DEVELOPMENT,
DOUBLING IN AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8824 (S13W72)
CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8839
(N11E06) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. A MAJOR SEGMENT OF THE POLAR CROWN
FILAMENT NEAR N60E10 DISAPPEARED AFTER 0800UT ON 19 JANUARY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. INCREASED FLARE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGION 8837 AS
IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. A K OF 4 WAS
OBSERVED IN BOULDER AT 1200UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THRU 22 JAN. SOLAR WIND DATA
FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT CONTINUE TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF AN
INTERPLANETARY SHOCK. ON 23 JAN THE FIELD SHOULD RETURN TO QUIET
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 21 JAN to 23 JAN
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 JAN 171 Predicted 21 JAN-23 JAN 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 20 JAN 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JAN 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JAN 012/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JAN-23 JAN 015/012-025/035-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 JAN to 23 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 02% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 06% | 01% |
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