Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 January 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 JAN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, ONLY MINOR C FLARES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR GROWTH IN REGION 8837 (S09W41), ALL ACTIVE REGIONS APPEAR STABLE OR DECLINING. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8831 (S19W12) OR REGION 8824 (S13W58). IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN BASICALLY QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THERE WAS A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF ENERGETIC PROTON FLUXES FOLLOWING THE FLARE ACTIVITY ON 18 JANUARY, HOWEVER, FLUXES APPEAR TO BE RETURNING TO BACKGROUND LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL 21 JANUARY WHEN THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF THE M FLARE ACTIVITY ON 18 JANUARY.
III. Event Probabilities 20 JAN to 22 JAN
Class M50%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 JAN 179
  Predicted   20 JAN-22 JAN  175/170/165
  90 Day Mean        19 JAN 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JAN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JAN  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JAN-22 JAN  010/008-015/012-020/028
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 JAN to 22 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%30%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%30%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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