Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 January 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 JAN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. OVERALL ACTIVITY INCREASED DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8824 (S13E47) DEVELOPED INTO A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION AND PRODUCED AN M1/1F EVENT AT 12/0017UT. REGION 8824 ALSO PRODUCED MULTIPLE C-CLASS EVENTS AND SHOWED STRONG PLAGE BRIGHTENING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NEW NUMBERED REGION 8829 (N16E78) PRODUCED AN M2/SF IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP AT 12/0138UT. REGIONS 8826 (N18W21), 8827 (S11W20), AND 8828 (S19E58) ALL SHOWED INCREASED ACTIVITY AND PRODUCED OPTICAL SUBFLARES. NEW REGIONS 8828 AND 8829 WERE NUMBERED DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8824.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE LEVELS FROM 11/21-2400UT AND THEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 13 JAN to 15 JAN
Class M60%60%60%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 JAN 196
  Predicted   13 JAN-15 JAN  200/205/210
  90 Day Mean        12 JAN 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JAN  015/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JAN  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JAN-15 JAN  010/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 JAN to 15 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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