Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 January 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 JAN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY EVENT AT 11/0424UT. REGION 8824 (S13E47) WAS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH OPTICAL SUBFLARES, THE LARGEST BEING A C9/SF AT 11/0116UT. REGION 8824 DEVELOPED INTO A MORE COMPLEX BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD. A TEN DEGREE LONG DISAPPEARING SOLAR FILAMENT (S34E41) WAS NOTED AT 11/1440UT. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED DURING THE PERIOD: 8826 (N18W21) AND 8827 (S11W20).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH TWO ACTIVE PERIODS OCCURRING AT THE END OF THE REPORTING DAY. THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS DUE TO HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM. THE ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED MODERATE LEVELS TODAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EFFECTS OF A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL ACTIVE CONDITIONS. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD FADE QUICKLY, GIVING WAY TO QUIET CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 12 JAN to 14 JAN
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 JAN 178
  Predicted    12 JAN-14 JAN  180/185/190
  90 Day Mean        11 JAN 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JAN  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JAN  018/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JAN-14 JAN  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 JAN to 14 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 05%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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