Viewing archive of Monday, 10 January 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 JAN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8824 (S13E62) PRODUCED AN M3/2N EVENT AT 1350Z, NOT LONG AFTER IT HAD GENERATED A C9/SF AT 0912Z. THE GROUP IS A MODEST-SIZED BIPOLE, WITH A SEEMINGLY SIMPLE MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8825 (N11E58) ROTATED INTO VIEW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN NEAR MIDDAY ON 09 JANUARY. THE FLUX ATTAINED A VALUE NEAR 2 PFU EARLY TODAY, AND IS NOW SUBSIDING. THE ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS AGAIN TODAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EFFECTS OF A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL ACTIVE CONDITIONS. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD FADE QUICKLY, GIVING WAY TO QUIET CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 11 JAN to 13 JAN
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 JAN 163
  Predicted    11 JAN-13 JAN  165/170/170
  90 Day Mean        10 JAN 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JAN  001/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JAN  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JAN-13 JAN  015/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 JAN to 13 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm 10%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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