Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 January 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 JAN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE DAY WAS A C-6 AT 1645Z. AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE AT S54E90, BRIGHT PLAGE IN NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8823 (S31E63) AND REGION 8819 (N10W52), AS WELL AS ENHANCED PLAGE NEAR S11E75 WERE ALL OCCURRING WHEN THESE X-RAYS WERE RECORDED. LIMB ACTIVITY HAS BEEN COMMONPLACE ON THE EAST LIMB AS A PRECURSOR OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVE CENTERS TO APPEAR. THE REMAINING DISK REGIONS WERE QUIET AND EITHER STABLE OR DECAYING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED, WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF ACTIVE PERIODS AT THE END OF THE INTERVAL. A WELL-DEFINED CORONAL HOLE IS NOW JUST WEST OF CENTRAL MERIDIAN.
III. Event Probabilities 09 JAN to 11 JAN
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 JAN 155
  Predicted   09 JAN-11 JAN  160/165/170
  90 Day Mean        08 JAN 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JAN  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JAN  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JAN-11 JAN  010/010-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 JAN to 11 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%40%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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