Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 January 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 JAN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8810 (N38W51) WAS THE
LARGEST FLARE PRODUCER OF THE PAST DAY, GENERATING A C2/SF AT
04/1114UT. REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET. TWO NEW SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE
NUMBERED: 8816 (N24W15) AND 8817 (N24E10).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED
AT SOME STATIONS BETWEEN 04/0900-1500UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 05 JAN to 07 JAN
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 JAN 135 Predicted 05 JAN-07 JAN 135/140/145 90 Day Mean 04 JAN 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JAN 012/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JAN 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JAN-07 JAN 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 JAN to 07 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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