Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 January 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 JAN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE MINOR OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C1 EVENT OCCURRED AT 01/2245Z. ONLY FOUR MOSTLY STABLE
SUNSPOT GROUPS ARE VISIBLE NOW WITH NO OBVIOUS COMPLEXITY EVIDENT. A
LARGE 22 DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED FROM NEAR S28W03.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ISOLATED MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. DISTURBED CONDITIONS FROM
THE CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED STREAM THAT BEGAN ON 30 DEC, CONTINUED
THIS PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN TWO MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT MODERATE
TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH OCCASIONAL MINOR
STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS CORONAL HOLE RELATED
DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY DAY TWO. QUIET TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 03 JAN to 05 JAN
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 JAN 133 Predicted 03 JAN-05 JAN 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 02 JAN 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JAN 021/027 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JAN 016/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JAN-05 JAN 015/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 JAN to 05 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 65% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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