Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 December 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 DEC 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. CLASS C FLARES HAVE BEEN
INFREQUENT, PRIMARILY FROM REGION 8806 (N19W82). THE REGION IS
SLOWLY SIMPLIFYING AS IT NEARS WEST LIMB PASSAGE. NEW REGION 8813
(S16E63) AND REGION 8814 (N10E73). APPEAR COMPARATIVELY SIMPLE AND
SMALL.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
LOW. REPORTS OF AN ACTIVE FILAMENT IN REGION 8806 INDICATE
CONTINUING POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED, ENERGETIC EVENTS OCCURRING IN
AND AROUND THE REGION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASING ACTIVITY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
EARTH MOVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS IN THE SOLAR
WIND. ACTIVITY IN REGION 8806 MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED PROTON EVENT
IN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS BUT MAJOR PROTON FLUXES AT EARTH ARE UNLIKELY.
III. Event Probabilities 30 DEC to 01 JAN
| Class M | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 DEC 144 Predicted 30 DEC-01 JAN 140/135/130 90 Day Mean 29 DEC 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 DEC 008/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 DEC 006/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 DEC-01 JAN 010/010-012/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 DEC to 01 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 03% | 03% | 06% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 06% | 06% | 03% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 03% | 06% |
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