Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 December 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 DEC 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A LOW LEVEL. ONLY SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED. REGION 8797 (S34W01) EXHIBITED SLIGHT GROWTH BUT MOST REGIONS WERE PREDOMINANTLY STABLE ON IN A STATE OF DECLINE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE DISTURBANCE OBSERVED ON 13 DEC ENDED QUICKLY AFTER 13/1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 15 DEC to 17 DEC
Class M 10%10%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 DEC 168
  Predicted    15 DEC-17 DEC  165/160/155
  90 Day Mean        14 DEC 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 DEC  026/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 DEC  004/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 DEC-17 DEC  010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 DEC to 17 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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