Viewing archive of Monday, 13 December 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 DEC 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A COUPLE OF MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGIONS 8796 (S27W03), 8797 (S35E10), 8798 (S14E73), AND 8799 (S08E74) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MAJOR STORM. MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD FROM 13/0900 - 1200Z. THE PRECISE SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS UNKNOWN. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DECREASED BELOW HIGH LEVELS AROUND 13/0500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED AS THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOW DECREASING.
III. Event Probabilities 14 DEC to 16 DEC
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 DEC 166
  Predicted   14 DEC-16 DEC  175/185/180
  90 Day Mean        13 DEC 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 DEC  011/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 DEC  026/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 DEC-16 DEC  012/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 DEC to 16 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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