Viewing archive of Monday, 13 December 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 DEC 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A COUPLE OF MINOR C-CLASS
X-RAY EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGIONS 8796
(S27W03), 8797 (S35E10), 8798 (S14E73), AND 8799 (S08E74) WERE
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MAJOR STORM. MAJOR STORM
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD FROM 13/0900 - 1200Z.
THE PRECISE SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS UNKNOWN. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DECREASED BELOW HIGH LEVELS
AROUND 13/0500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED AS THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE
IS NOW DECREASING.
III. Event Probabilities 14 DEC to 16 DEC
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 DEC 166 Predicted 14 DEC-16 DEC 175/185/180 90 Day Mean 13 DEC 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 DEC 011/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 DEC 026/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 DEC-16 DEC 012/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 DEC to 16 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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