Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 December 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 DEC 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A COUPLE OF MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8794 (S14E31) PRODUCED A C2/1F EVENT AT 11/0333Z. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS THE FIRST DAY DUE TO A SOLAR DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE ON 09 DECEMBER.
III. Event Probabilities 12 DEC to 14 DEC
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 DEC 159
  Predicted    12 DEC-14 DEC  170/180/185
  90 Day Mean        11 DEC 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 DEC  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 DEC  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 DEC-14 DEC  010/010-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 DEC to 14 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%20%
Minor storm 20%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%30%30%
Minor storm 25%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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