Viewing archive of Friday, 10 December 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 DEC 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8795 (S12E06) WAS
NUMBERED. REGION 8795 DISPLAYED SIGNIFICANT GROWTH DURING THE LAST
DAY AND IS CURRENTLY A DAO-BETA SPOT GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ENERGETIC ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS
DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 11 DEC to 13 DEC
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 DEC 164 Predicted 11 DEC-13 DEC 170/180/185 90 Day Mean 10 DEC 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 DEC 014/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 DEC 012/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 DEC-13 DEC 012/010-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 DEC to 13 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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