Viewing archive of Friday, 10 December 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 DEC 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8795 (S12E06) WAS NUMBERED. REGION 8795 DISPLAYED SIGNIFICANT GROWTH DURING THE LAST DAY AND IS CURRENTLY A DAO-BETA SPOT GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 11 DEC to 13 DEC
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 DEC 164
  Predicted    11 DEC-13 DEC  170/180/185
  90 Day Mean        10 DEC 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 DEC  014/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 DEC  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 DEC-13 DEC  012/010-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 DEC to 13 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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