Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 December 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 DEC 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY INFREQUENT SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY STABLE WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 8793 (S16E11) AND 8794 (S15E58).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE ACTIVE PERIOD OCCURRING AT 09/03-06UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS FOR THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 10 DEC to 12 DEC
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 DEC 156
  Predicted   10 DEC-12 DEC  165/175/185
  90 Day Mean        09 DEC 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 DEC  009/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 DEC  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 DEC-12 DEC  012/010-005/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 DEC to 12 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%40%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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