Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 December 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 DEC 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. JUST INFREQUENT SMALL
C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED. REGION 8788 (N10E43) IS STILL THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE OF THE FIVE SPOTTED REGIONS. THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THIS
DAY-OLD DISTURBANCE IS A CONSEQUENCE OF HIGH SPEED (650 KM/S) SOLAR
WIND FROM A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. EPISODIC MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES. THIS STREAM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FIELD THROUGHOUT THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 06 DEC to 08 DEC
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 DEC 143 Predicted 06 DEC-08 DEC 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 05 DEC 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 DEC 021/028 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 DEC 017/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 DEC-08 DEC 020/020-015/018-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 DEC to 08 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 55% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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