Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 December 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 DEC 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED, WITH REGION 8788 (N10E56) BEING THE MOST PRODUCTIVE DISK REGION. SURGING HAS BEEN SEEN MOST OF THE DAY NEAR N10W90, WHERE REGION 8782 IS MAKING ITS TRANSIT. THE STATE OF THE DISK CAN BE DESCRIBED AS QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE LOW LEVEL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS. HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND, MEASURING NEAR 700 KM/S, CONTINUES TO BUFFET THE MAGNETOPAUSE AND FUEL THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 05 DEC to 07 DEC
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 DEC 148
  Predicted   05 DEC-07 DEC  150/155/160
  90 Day Mean        04 DEC 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 DEC  009/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 DEC  022/034
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 DEC-07 DEC  020/030-020/020-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 DEC to 07 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active55%55%50%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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