Viewing archive of Friday, 3 December 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 DEC 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE DAY'S LARGEST EVENT WAS AN UNOBSERVED IMPULSIVE C6 AT 1953Z. FOUR NEW ACTIVE REGIONS WERE NUMBERED DURING THE PERIOD. THEY ARE 8786 (N22W23), 8787 (N11E30), 8788 (N10E66), AND 8789 (N29W23). SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST YET ANOTHER REGION MAY BE SOON TO APPEAR AROUND N10 AT THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE LOW LEVEL. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE ELEVATED SOLAR WIND SPEEDS, CHARACTERISTIC OF A CORONAL HOLE-RELATED STREAM.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE HIGH SPEED STREAM SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 04 DEC to 06 DEC
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 DEC 152
  Predicted   04 DEC-06 DEC  160/170/180
  90 Day Mean        03 DEC 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 DEC  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 DEC  014/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 DEC-06 DEC  015/020-015/025-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 DEC to 06 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%40%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%50%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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