Viewing archive of Friday, 26 November 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 NOV 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8771 (S14W63) PRODUCED
AN M6/2N FLARE AT 26/1343Z. THIS MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION WAS
ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR AN M5/3B TENFLARE AT 26/0123Z AND AN M1/2B
FLARE AT 26/0400Z. THOUGH THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS OF DECAY, THE
DELTA CONFIGURATION REMAINS INTACT. A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION WAS OBSERVED MOSTLY OFF THE WEST LIMB AT 26/0754Z. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE SOURCE FOR THE CME, BUT A C3/SF WITH A
TYPE II SWEEP WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8778 (S14W05) AT 26/0705Z. THIS
REGION DID EXHIBIT SOME GROWTH THIS PERIOD AND REMAINS A MODERATELY
COMPLEX E-TYPE SPOT GROUP. REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. EXPECT MORE M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGION
8771 WITH A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE. REGION 8778 IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE PRODUCING C-CLASS EVENTS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED M-CLASS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR DAY ONE AND TWO. EFFECTS FROM TODAY'S
CME MAY PRODUCE ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 27 NOV to 29 NOV
| Class M | 60% | 55% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 NOV 172 Predicted 27 NOV-29 NOV 170/165/155 90 Day Mean 26 NOV 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 NOV 017/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 NOV 006/006 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 NOV-29 NOV 007/008-007/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 NOV to 29 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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