Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 November 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C9 X-RAY EVENT AT 24/1222Z. THE LIKELY SOURCE WAS ACTIVE REGION 8765 (L234) WHICH JUST ROTATED AROUND THE WEST LIMB. A PROMINENCE ERUPTED OFF THE WEST LIMB NEAR N45,A CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED WITH THIS ERUPTION. REGION 8771 (N18W40) REMAINS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK WITH 750 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AERIAL COVERAGE. A C6/1N FLARE OCCURRED IN THIS REGION AT 24/1930Z WITH MINOR DISCRETE RADIO EMISSIONS. NEW REGIONS 8779 (S09W27) AND 8780 (S11E51) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8771 AND OLD REGION 8765 ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING AT 24/09-12Z. SUSTAINED NEGATIVE BZ IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MINOR DISTURBANCE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 25 NOV to 27 NOV
Class M 60%60%60%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 NOV 187
  Predicted    25 NOV-27 NOV  185/180/175
  90 Day Mean        24 NOV 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 NOV  013/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 NOV  018/019
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 NOV-27 NOV  012/010-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 NOV to 27 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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