Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 November 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8771 (S14W26) PRODUCED NUMEROUS SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD INCLUDING A FEW THAT REACHED C-CLASS. THIS REGION APPEARED TO STABILIZE AS A LARGE E-TYPE SPOT GROUP WITH COMPACT SUNSPOT DISTRIBUTION AND A MIXED-POLARITY MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. REGION 8765 (S12W85) REMAINED A LARGE, MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX GROUP, BUT WAS STABLE AS IT BEGAN TO CROSS THE WEST LIMB. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8771 AND REGION 8765 (AS IT ROTATES OUT OF VIEW). THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM EITHER OF THESE REGIONS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ACTIVE LEVELS OCCURRED DURING 23/0500 - 0900Z FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT SOUTHWARD IMF BZ. ACTIVITY DECLINED TO UNSETTLED LEVELS AFTER 23/0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A PROTON EVENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT, SHOULD A MAJOR FLARE OCCUR FROM REGIONS 8765 OR 8771.
III. Event Probabilities 24 NOV to 26 NOV
Class M 70%60%60%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 NOV 186
  Predicted    24 NOV-26 NOV  175/170/155
  90 Day Mean        23 NOV 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 NOV  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 NOV  014/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 NOV-26 NOV  012/015-010/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 NOV to 26 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm 15%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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